When 2011 began, Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting company, expected that America’s economic output would shape up to rise at a 4.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, the highest pace in over a year.
But economic reports coming in over the last few months have been increasingly disappointing.
Today, after an especially weak report on February’s trade deficit, the group’s economists lowered their first quarter G.D.P. estimate to a sorry 1.5 percent annualized. If borne out, that rate would be slower than each of the last two quarters, at a time when the economy desperately needs to be rocketing forward so that companies will hasten their hiring.
The Commerce Department will release its preliminary number for first quarter G.D.P. on April 28.
Update: MarketWatch (via CalculatedRisk) reports that forecasters at Morgan Stanley and RBS Securities have also lowered their G.D.P. estimates for the first quarter.
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